The Powerfull men in Iran (f.r.t.l.): S. Larijani (Judicial Officer), Ahmadinejad (Government), Khamenei (Leader), Rafsanjani (the 'godfather') en A. Larijani (Parliament)
The recent protests in Tehran are considered a rebirth of the Green movement, or even the beginning of an Iranian spring. "Premature analysis and undue contentment', is the of Iranian publicist Damon Golriz. "The protests are not organized by the people themselves, but by the rival factions within the Islamic state. The people are staying in their homes for now. "
Is this the start of an Iranian Spring? Will history be written again? The recent demonstrations and strikes in the Bazaar of Tehran, three years after millions of Iranians took to the streets to protest against the results of the presidential elections, another one in the series of interesting events. Many consider this rebirth of the 2009 Green movement.
The most prominent opposition figure, Prince Reza Pahlavi, therefore called the population on Thursday to "support the unions' strikes continue. Israel by way of Lieberman predicted "an Iranian Spring” and his U.S. counterpart Clinton assured the same day that if the ayatollahs were to capitulate, the economic sanctions that currently plague the country," soon would be removed. Premature analysis and undue contentment. Simply because the recent protests are not organized by the people themselves, but by the rival factions within the Islamic state. The people are staying in their homes for now.
Power Struggle
"The enemy is furious because our nation will not falter." This quote by Khamenei, that headlined Friday’s Kayhan, Iran’s ultra-conservative and propagandistic newspaper, is significant. Not only does it refer to the unprecedented international pressure, economic sanctions, but also exposes the fact that the biggest internal political power struggles in Tehran is indeed in full swing.
On Tuesday, October 2, 2012, within a few hours, the Iranian currency devalued more than forty percent. Ahmadinejad pointed out that afternoon at a press conference that speculative moneychangers were in fact responsible for the high inflation. Which resulted in the Strikes. Two days the market traders (bazaaris) laid down their work in the main financial institution of Iran. It was reminiscent thirty-four years ago, when the strikes in the bazaar were the determining factor for the success of the Islamic Revolution. Strikes, which had helped the ayatollahs in their struggle against the Shah.
A Bazaari strike thus has the potential to give a new revolutionary movement apolitical surge. That must have been exactly the idea of the organizers. By mobile phone texts calling on the bazaaris to participate. If not, then all their possessions would be destroyed.
Gangs
The Instigators of the massive texts were unveiled today by Mohsen Rezaei, a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards. The 'secret database of the Ministry of Economic Affairs' would be the source, according to his website Baztab. This was followed by rivals of the Ahmadinejad administration unanimously responding that the protesters were not the 'currency traders and merchants', but 'gangs and paid mob of thugs ".
It is evident that the ayatollahs with Supreme Leader Khamenei spearheading, are pointing the accusatory finger towards Ahmadinejad for inciting unrest. Where the power struggle until recently took place verbally and in back rooms, the powers to be seem now to have swapped the corridors for the streets of the capital. Leaving a trail of threats and vandalism in its path! Their motive: the fast approaching presidential elections in Iran (June 2013).
Never before has a president been as rebellious, confident, and determined to rival the mighty ayatollahs as the phenomenon Dr. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. A phenomenon that polarizes and unites simultaneously. The trends show that the godfather and the crisis manager of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Rafsanjani, and the highest Ayatollah Khamenei, unite against President Ahmadinejad. Their diabolical dilemma is: to stop Ahmadinejad before the expiration of his political term in office by way of ritual slaughter? Or to stop Ahmadinejad’s government with (un) justified accusations till it decimates slowly and painfully?
Enemies
The Iranian president is in turn furious and belligerent. Those near to him Mashai (advisor), Rahimi (Vice-President), Javanfekr (media consultant) are successively structurally insulted, accused and imprisoned. The President of Iran has publicly voiced strong criticism against the interference of the Revolutionary Guards, the hostility of the parliamentary House-speaker, partiality of the judiciary, the censorship and propaganda of the state media and the opposition of the clergy. And now, since this week, he has also added the bazaaris to the list enemies.
Friends are few and far between, yet he has a few aces up his sleeve and he is playing them shrewdly. His annual speech to the United Nations was surprisingly moderate toward Israel - a thorn in Khamenei’s eyes. Ahmadinejad has also extended 5 invitations in one week to the United States to normalize relations and a start "dialogue" with Iran, - knowing that this issue is perhaps the greatest taboo for Khamenei.
Folk’s Hero?
Ahmadinejad wants a folk hero against the ayatollahs. He proves this in his words and in his critic of the government. A good example is his controversial conference, which gave occasion for demonstrations last week. Ahmadinejad: "Now that my government is being counteracted and attacked by everyone, we are prepared to sacrifice for the Iranian nation"
With a flight forward, he seeks the margins to international legitimacy for his government. With his own firm internal criticism against his rivals he flirts with the populations strong sentiments of aversion against the Islamic regime. A nation thirsty for freedom. His exceptional courage and desire for political survival might suite the Iranians.
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